What sequence of events caused the mess?

Hedge fund executive Oscar Schafer in a Barron's interview (January 12, 2009, "Hang on Tight!") described our current economic condition thus: "The world is experiencing a giant margin call."

Yes, a giant margin call enabled by easy credit extended to millions of people who couldn't afford as much home as they purchased, or as much cashed out equity to finance a lifestyle they couldn't afford, before defaulting on their mortgages. 

These mortgages would be bundled into what equated to securitized time bombs gobbled up by over-leveraged financial institutions. 

How did it all happen?


Policy makers in Washington wanted to guarantee home ownership for anyone with a pulse. Then the Fed left open the spigot of cheap money by keeping rates too low for too long and America became intoxicated by illusory home price appreciation. Money center moguls and central bankers made enormous bets upon this whole sorry misuse of credit, until the system collapsed.  

Millions of people, who either ought to have remained renters until their income and assets could justify their mortgage, or who should have purchased more modest homes and received loans at fixed rates, were enabled by government-coddled institutions like Fannie and Freddie and populist legislation to "invest in our communities". 

The risks they took (policy makers, investment banks...and millions of  Americans), have poisoned the well that the rest of us must drink from -- perhaps for decades. Now we hear that the other shoe to drop will come from commercial credit busts, or the next highest risk level of mortgages above subprime.  

Grandma warned us when we were children.  If you can't afford it -- don't buy it. If you can't afford to lose it -- don't risk it. In short, live within your means.  Greed is the same thing that destroyed Rome. How will we get treatment and beat our addiction to debt before we all go down in flames?

A president's farewell

I felt sorry for him as he approached the lectern with a sheepish smile.

As Kissinger reminded Nixon, history will treat him better than his contemporaries. His policies precluded another attack since 9/11. To conclude otherwise is to posit that the other side simply stopped trying to harm us after 9/11.  The President deserves credit and at least grudging acknowledgement from his political opponents for stalwart efforts to fight terrorism and protect Americans.  

I'm reminded of another parallel with Nixon. Richard Nixon asked readers this question in one of his later books: if America does not lead in this world -- who will?

I repeated the question in one of my columns and a rebuttal came from a letter writer who declared that the correct answer to this question is -- the "leaders" of other countries.  Unfortunately, the world has always been replete with 'leaders' like Stalin, Hitler and Hussein that refuse to back down.  

This President did not have the luxury of presiding over a relatively peaceful world and the safety of American citizens has been this President's overriding concern.  That fact will endure as a positive part of his legacy, even if the Iraq invasion does not. 

George W. Bush

Finally, his administration failed to stem the profligate federal spending we have seen during the last eight years -- punctuated with a new drug program we can ill afford; but that's a trend the new administration appears destined to continue.