More news you can use....

from Nicole Nguyen.  Check out this article about consumer reviews on Amazon. 

I love the way that online commerce has democratized consumerism through usage of online reviews -- positive ones, negative ones and those that are simply informational.  

(Unfortunately, fake reviews and paid reviews continue to be a problem and Ms. Nguyen writes about that issue here).  

Computer vector created by pikisuperstar - www.freepik.com

Since the impact of negative reviews on sales is well understood; some merchants will essentially bribe the author of a negative review to delete their review, or harangue them with multiple e-mails.  

Fortunately, Amazon product reviews can be submitted anonymously to avoid unwanted merchant contact.  The article behind this post, provides the steps to take. 

News you can use -- today's WSJ -- Tech section

Wall Street Journal columnist Ms. Nicole Nguyen shares an easy way to digitize your vaccination cards -- instead of a photo copy that might be harder to find.  Check out this article.  You'll find instructions for both iPhones and Android phones. 

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Calling the market peak -- REVISITED

 Greetings!

Based upon feedback I received from one of my valued seven readers, what follows is a refinement of the views expressed in the previous post about market timing.  

Recall we're talking about predicting the direction of the equity market as a whole, or a large swath of it like the S&P 500 --- not individual stocks.

I didn't mean to imply that one cannot utilize deep experience and technical analysis to correctly predict a stock market peak (or trough) some of the time.  

There's an old saying that even a broken clock is right twice a day.  

However, who's consistently made these bold calls with enough accuracy to "beat" the market?  If you accept the proposition that the answer to that last question is nobody -- why would one ever wager more than they could afford to lose by trying?  

Vector created by pikisuperstar - www.freepik.com

Think you can call the market peak? Think again.

I know most of my limitations.  I learned a while ago, for example, that I'm not a stock picker.  I also learned that trying to predict the stock market's trajectory is an often futile and dangerous exercise.  

One financial adviser whom I've known for decades addressed the oft-asked question -- When-will-the-stock-market-crash? -- in his recent client newsletter.  A Minneapolis-based adviser with Focus Financial he wrote...   

"The chances of individuals guessing when the stock market is going to crash is approximately the same as my guessing when the sun is going to explode.  Since I can't reasonably hazard a guess, I prefer to go about my day without worrying about the sun exploding."

Animals vector by rawpixel.com - www.freepik.com

Living or dead, at their most interesting

The people and story behind the Biltmore Estate

The Last Castle by Denise Kiernan 

Still the largest private residence ever constructed in the U.S. at 175,000 square feet; Biltmore Estate continues to hold public imagination.  I'd always thought, mistakenly, that Biltmore was built at the behest of the family patriarch Cornelius Vanderbilt (aka "The Commodore").  

In fact it was his grandson, George W. Vanderbilt, who acquired some 125,000 acres in North Carolina's western countryside among the Blue Ridge mountains, upon which the mansion was constructed. 

One alert, as other reviewers noted, this book has less detail concerning the construction process, materials, architectural features and maintenance requirements of the structure, than one might've expected from the title.  

A fuller indication of Ms. Kiernan's narrative focus is revealed by her subtitle, "The Epic Story of Love, Loss, and American Royalty in the Nation's Largest Home".  

For some stunning modern day visuals of the Biltmore estate (now part of a mere 8,000 acres at Ashville, NC); have a look at the Biltmore Company website found 🠊here.  

Justice Alito speaks out at national lawyers convention

Justice Samuel A. Alito gave a virtual address to a lawyers convention on Nov. 25th.  

A little over 30 minutes; I'd recommend the YouTube video below, to anyone trying to understand why some Americans feel strongly that basic rights enumerated in the Constitution like Freedom of Speech, Freedom of Religion and Freedom of Assembly are being tested.   

This is not, IMO, a dry legal lecture for lawyers.  Rather it's a clear overview of recent actions by the courts, legislators and special interests and how those actions may collectively dilute protections sought by the Framers.  

Example: the uproar over Nevada's COVID restrictions (overturned on appeal) that prohibited religious gatherings of more than 50 people (regardless of precautions that could be taken), while permitting a percentage of capacity as the governing measure of people able to patronize a casino; even if that percentage equates to more than 50 people.

In any event; the video is worthwhile viewing....

Avoid Shopworn Business Phrases

 At the office or via conference calls, I’ve used clichés many times. Business cliches are phrases that lack impact and often convey unintended impressions, or at least a serious lack of imagination. For your consideration, I’ve listed my top five most overused business phrases....

1.      “Let’s get the low hanging fruit” – This relic is normally meant to convey the speaker’s opinion on prioritization. Pursuing whatever he/she advocates; will presumably result in a higher success rate because of fewer barriers. Be wary when you hear it. You may by closer to the orchard and your gut may tell you that more fruit hangs high, has already been picked, or already rotted than the speaker knows.

2.       “It is….what it is” – Of course. What else could it be? If you wish to say we must reluctantly accept the current state and move on; just say that. 

3.    Here's another classic cliché and one typically used to answer a very simple and honest question like, how are you? I'm referring to the standard reply, "I'm living the dream". It might been amusing the first five times one hears it....but after that?

4.      “Let’s think outside the box” – This tired metaphor reveals that the speaker trying to inspire or reward freethinking probably lacks imagination. That defeats the purpose of using it to animate others in the first place. 

5.      “Our people are our most valuable asset” – How many mission statements, speeches and ads, include this syrupy old slogan? It’s usage automatically invites skepticism. Why not post examples that actually demonstrate an organization’s commitment to employee well-being, as opposed to a ubiquitous platitude?

www.freepik.com/photos/business"​>Business photo created by pch.vector - www.freepik.comption

A dried pasta revelation

Growing up, we ate pasta frequently in the Maddente home.  I still enjoy it; but all I'd ever learned about this staple is that it's a mortal sin to over cook it.  I never could discern any significant taste difference among the many different dried pastas on the market.  

Recently; I've learned something new.  Extrusion methods matter.

Food photo created by timolina - www.freepik.com

Here's a parallel.  Ever heard of "Steel Cut Oats"?  I used to think that's an either slightly pompous or at least a haute description used to sell oatmeal.  

I'm going to rethink that assumption and try steel cut oats.  That's because I've stumbled upon a dried pasta called "Bronze Cut" which is a reference to the metallurgy involved with the device that extrudes and cuts the pasta.  

For those interested in the science and engineering behind this alloy for pasta making purposes; here's an article.  For the rest of us, suffice it to say that the bronze cut process produces a noodle that's less dense and more porous.  It simply tastes better and it adheres to sauce (or sauce adheres to the pasta) ….better.  That's all I know.  

It costs a little bit more; but worth it.  Bon Appetit!  

A real estate CEO moves to TX

.  

rex.com

Last Saturday, a CEO named Peter Rex published an opinion piece in the WSJ that attracted a fair amount of attention on LinkedIn.  The article is entitled, "I'm Leaving Seattle for Texas So My Employees Can Be Free"  . 

I believe you'll find the views expressed in this piece reasonable and factual -- but unfortunately -- not widely promulgated by traditional media.  

Read more about Mr. Rex here.  

The downside of low interest rates

Columnist Jeff Sommer published a piece called, "Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates" in the May 17 edition of the New York Times. Mr. Sommer’s take is refreshing.  Monetary Doves and Pols on both sides of the aisle typically ignore the ill effects of low interest rates on conservative investors and senior citizens who receive abysmally low returns from their fixed income investments.  

Mr. Sommer points out that in an ultra low rate world, retirees and those approaching retirement, are left with three poor choices... 

“Live on less, dip deeply into savings or take on more risk…”. 

A steady trough of cheap money and easy credit induces bad decisions that impact all of us.  As mentioned in this space over five years ago, a perennial ultra-low rate environment coupled with lax credit standards, was one of the factors that enabled the masses to over leverage and buy homes they couldn't afford before the housing bubble burst.  

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We hear much about the economic benefits of low interest rates including increased capital investment and consumer spending; but there's also a down side.  

Asset bubbles and inflationary pressures strike us all when the cost of credit stays too low, too long.  Yet, it's still easy to find pundits and politicians who always advocate for lower interest rates.  Cheap money.  Who's not for that?

As for the once unthinkable prospect of the FOMC taking short terms rates below zero (a scenario also cited in Sommer's column); it was comforting last week to hear Fed Chairman Powell publicly tamp down the likelihood.  

The public courtesy award goes to Ricky Gervais

A few winners at the Golden Globe Awards on January 5th decided to espouse their personal political views to the public, even after host Ricky Gervais admonished them not to do so.

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The majority of us don't tune in to the Golden Globes to watch Stars advocate for a cause celebre.  It's not a free speech issue; it's a public courtesy issue.  Want to speak out about Abortion?  How about Gun Rights or Gun Control?  OK; but please choose an appropriate forum.  Actor Charlton Heston spoke out about protecting Second Amendment rights in 2012 but he made his Gun Rights remarks at an NRA convention, not the Golden Globe Awards.  Big difference.

There's no shortage of outlets to express one's political opinions on one's own time.  Golden Globe Award viewers deserve to hear from invited artists about their art and not by using that forum as polarizing crusaders.

Mr. Gervais is an intellectually honest Progressive who was speaking to his peers that evening because some of them insist on pontificating about matters having nothing to do with why they are being recognized.  He told them...

"So, if you do win an award tonight; don't use it as a platform to make a political speech."  

Then Mr. Gervais added....

"You’re in no position to lecture the public about anything," 

Bravo Ricky! 

  

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On 2/4/2025 Ricky Gervais posted this picture on X with a caption, "They're still not listening".  How right he is.

Viva Espana

My wife and I recently returned from a vacation in Spain.  I haven't posted in months and it's a pleasure to share some beauty and love that we witnessed. 

Let's start with the Spanish people themselves.  They are as warm and courteous as I'd heard and quite tolerant of Americans seeking assistance.  They're also, by and large, very well dressed! 

A word about our tour guide, Mr. Federico García Barroso.  Mr. García Barroso is, and I don't often use this word to describe others -- remarkable.  He's the kind of man who can brighten lives simply by doing what he loves to do, which is sharing his knowledge of Spain's rich history and art.  

An accomplished guide, Mr. García Barroso is also a lover of music and a fine tenor.  At the closing dinner for our travel group, he sang four songs.  One in French, one in Spanish, one in English and one in Italian.  Like I said....remarkable.  Here's a taste...CLICK HERE.

The treasure trove of art in Spain including sculptures, paintings and of course, architecture, has always been a source of pride for the Spanish.  An example; the Basilica known as the Sagrada Familia the construction of which, began in 1882, is one of the most stunning edifices I've ever seen.  Spanish authorities are working diligently to complete its construction by the 100th anniversary of the death of its renowned architect, Antoni Gaudi, in 2026.

Below you'll see a photo -- untouched and taken only with natural light -- of the interior.  I was amazed by the columns alone, which resemble giant trees in a luminous forest.  The tops of the columns literally "branch out" to support the top structure.  We learned that Gaudi's work contains rich symbolism of the natural world and the divine.  These columns are part of his expression. 

If you have the opportunity, please visit the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona.   



John Maddente photo 

T.S. Eliot and a Christmas wish

And the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. 

-- T. S. Eliot

About 15 years ago I discovered an exceptional documentary called, The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara.

Directed by Errol Morris, The Fog of War walks the viewer through most of the 20th century as told by former U.S. Secretary of Defense and World Bank President, Robert S. McNamara.  Mr. McNamara reflects on his life's lessons and uses the Eliot quote above, at a particularly moving stage of the film.  McNamara's heartfelt and detailed ruminations, the film clips, the music by Phillip Glass and still photos all work together to vividly and memorably capture the American experience.

The Fog of War was an Academy Award Winner for best documentary feature in 2003 and I'll recommend the film for the rest of my days.  In the meantime, Merry Christmas.

*image above wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/Thomas_Stearns_Eliot_by_Lady_Ottoline_Morrell

A new book from Jonathan Hoenig

This coming November, Capitalist Pig Hedge Fund manager and business media figure, Jonathan Hoenig will release A New Textbook of Americanism: The Politics of Ayn Rand.  The book, edited by Mr. Hoenig, contains a collection of essays from notable writers in the Objectivist school, including one from Mr. Hoenig himself ("On Property Rights").  

Cover page image courtesy of J. Hoenig

Public Twitter Image - Jonathan Hoenig

A local hero to recall on Memorial Day

Somehow I missed this local news article about two years ago on the 72nd anniversary of D-Day.  The details of a D-Day jump with the 82nd Airborne Division (and subsequent trip back to Normandy 72 years later) is told in this Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article by Meg Jones.   Yesterday, I met the gentleman who was the subject of that piece, Mr. Ralph Ticcioni of New Berlin, Wisconsin. (Disclosure: Ralph is Uncle to one of my brothers-in-law).  

French Legion of Honour recipient, Ralph Ticcioni
John Maddente photo

As I listened to the 95 year old veteran speak about his experience, I marveled at his deep humility.  As a paratrooper that fateful day, Ralph along with thousands of his comrades were dropped behind enemy lines.  Unlike his comrades, he landed smack onto a farm rooftop in Cherbourg, France whereupon he had to cut himself loose from his own parachute which was entangled on a weather vane.  Some history readers and viewers of the movie, Saving Private Ryan will recall that Cherbourg was a location of importance during the invasion.  Speaking of the movie, Ralph told me that when he viewed the first twenty minutes of the film; he thought he was watching an actual news reel of the event.  (Many D-Day veterans have expressed a similar reaction to that segment).   

Ralph could easily recall the gear he carried that day, including the amount of ammunition and all the weapons he was issued which included a sidearm (.45 caliber semiautomatic pistol), several hand grenades and a Thompson sub-machine gun (which was swapped for an M1 Carbine rifle after paratroopers reunited with American supply units).  

So pleased to have met this man yesterday.  To all like him, living or not, God bless and thank you for defending freedom!

More than a napkin

Below is a humble cocktail napkin from a recent flight.  The inscription -- which I failed to notice at first -- has a richer significance. 

John Maddente photo

After I buckled up, a man next to me begin to banter with our flight attendant who obviously loved her work (I'll call her Laura).  Although he gave me permission to identify him for this post, I recall only his last name -- Weingarten.  Back to the flight...

Laura and Mr. Weingarten appeared to know one another rather well.  When Laura left to serve other passengers, Mr. Weingarten pointed out that both of our napkins contained this friendly, hand-written, greeting and that she had produced one for him on a previous flight.  What I learned next was my inspiration for this post.

Mr. Weingarten explained that on a previous flight, two other flight attendants took notice of Laura's gracious attitude toward her customers and criticized her napkin gesture (not knowing they were within earshot of Mr. Weingarten) because it made them look deficient. 

Shortly after Laura's colleagues finished upbraiding her, Mr. Weingarten motioned Laura to come over for a private word which he concluded with this counsel... "Don't let them crush your spirit".

The story continues.  A busy executive who travels over 150 days per year, Mr. Weingarten found a portal the airline uses to garner customer feedback.  He supplied his flight details and Laura's real name in order to extol her exemplary service and attitude. 

Airline managements take these passenger inputs quite seriously.  Laura was commended as a result.  I know not whether the other two attendants were cited in Mr. Weingarten's message, but this post is dedicated to all the Laura-types in our midst.  Don't let them crush your spirit.

Of small plates and anxious diners

Restaurants matter!  Since childhood, I’ve had an almost religious attraction to restaurants serving tasty Chinese food, Italian food, steaks, etc.  Now in my late 50s I’m speaking out against a form of dining that started to proliferate across the U.S. about 10 years ago.... a restaurant concept called, “small plates”. 

It’s not the portion size that bothers me.  OK, part of the problem is size-related, but one can obviously consume as many little bites as one wishes and leave satisfied.  Nor is the problem entirely due to flavors (I've enjoyed tapas and other tiny treats served at many small plate eateries).  The problem is the convoluted experience of the small plate "dinner".  Dinner in this case is a misnomer.  It's more like playing gastronomic chess and I don't like it.  Here's what happens at a typical small plate experience....

Small plates photo -- Wikipedia

After eyeing a group of baby plates spewed across a table that's invariably too small to accommodate them or the rest of us -- I’m drawn to some of these culinary strip teases much more than others.  Now -- how many pieces of the great stuff shall I eat?  

I want to be mindful of my fellow diners, but if I ignore the less appetizing small plate items, I'll leave hungry. I can do that or fill up on marginal stuff.  Some choice.

Wait, did she order those marinated artichokes as her dish?  OK, how many small plates shall we order for the next round?  One?  Two?  Twenty?  

Who votes for which plates to order?  You going to finish those artichokes?  Should we eat off of one another's plate?  Wait who wants dessert? 

I hear a sharp rebuke coming from the reader who is a Small Plate devotee, “Just order more small plates that you like and don't sweat the rest!”   No thank you.  I’ll go elsewhere and enjoy my own entree in simple, adult-plate-size bliss.  Who was given license to complicate something as wonderful as dining out and serve instead, an unclaimed barrage of appetizers?   

Economics 101 for the rest of us

Warren Buffet and Carl Icahn are famous investors but fewer people may know Ray Dalio.  Mr. Dalio founded an investment firm 40 years ago called Bridgewater Associates.  With $160 billion under management, Bridgewater runs one of the largest hedge funds in the world.

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, Bridgewater website

I recently discovered (among 3 million other people) a thirty minute YouTube video that Mr. Dalio produced to explain fundamentals of what he calls the economic machine. 

This video, which he narrates has been translated into several languages and viewed over 3,200,000 times.  The content begins slowly with basic concepts but progresses to explain the primary levers that policy-makers use to manage and stimulate the economy.  You can find it here.  

There are numerous lessons cleverly and clearly explained here.  Example: I hadn't appreciated why economists seem obsessed with Wage Growth until I watched this simple animated video.  The importance of wage growth has less to do with the oft-used and politically-charged phrase, "income inequality" and more to do with our collective ability to consume and deflate credit bubbles.

Also explained, is the concept of Credit, which Mr. Dalio asserts, "...is the most important part of the economy and probably the least understood". Other explanatory notes...

• "A beautiful deleveraging" of our massive debt and deficits is the catalyst for a soft landing we all pray for in order to avert "social disorder" and societal collapse.  
• Spending cuts are generally what people think of when they hear about "austerity" measures exercised by government, individuals and businesses to lower spending on goods and services.  
• Wealth redistribution occurs primarily through higher taxation on upper income Americans.  
• Money-printing refers to Federal Reserve purchases of government bonds and other financial assets ($2T since the Great Recession alone).

So what's the correct mix and emphasis of lever-pulling required for a soft landing?  Perhaps Mr. Dalio will address that question -- and what exactly is meant by a soft landing -- on this same platform at http://www.economicprinciples.org.

I'm hooked on BILLIONS

So little TV is worth watching IMO and that's why I was delighted to discover a SHOWTIME series called Billions. 

SHOWTIME image / Wikipedia

This series is based upon a high stakes dual between a billionaire hedge fund manager and a shrewd U.S. District Attorney.  Within a week, I devoured the entire twelve episodes from season one.  Happily, the show is coming back for a second season.

The two principal characters: U.S. Attorney, Chuck Rhoades (Paul Giamatti) and billionaire investor, Bobby Axelrod aka "Axe" (Damien Lewis), are both wickedly good.  An outstanding supporting cast includes...

Billions writers per Wikipedia

Jeffrey DeMunn (as Charles Rhoades Sr), David Costabile (as Mike Wagner), Maggie Siff (as Wendy Rhoades), Malin Akerman (as Lara Axelrod) and Glenn Fleshler (as Orrin Bach).

Due to the care and talent of the writers (see list at right >>) and a brilliant cast that brings their work to life, these characters are truly multi-dimensional. It's hard to completely love or loathe any of them, but you'll want to watch all of them.

While a certain amount of salaciousness is expected, some scenes in Billions are implausible or gratuitous.  Examples include the Chuck Rhodes' sadomasochistic sex scenes and Wendy Rhoades' willingness to slip into a bath naked with Axe to have a completely platonic business conversation (sure).  These are minor quibbles.  Watch the trailer by clicking here  >>>  or if you are pressed for time, check out this short YouTube video....