Think you can call the market peak? Think again.

I learned a while ago, that I'm not a stock picker.  I also learned that trying to predict the stock market's trajectory is a futile and dangerous exercise.  

One financial adviser whom I've known for decades, addressed the oft-asked question: When-will-the-stock-market-crash? in his recent client newsletter.  This Minneapolis-based pro wrote...   

"The chances of individuals guessing when the stock market is going to crash is approximately the same as my guessing when the sun is going to explode.  Since I can't reasonably hazard a guess, I prefer to go about my day without worrying about the sun exploding."

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Living or dead, at their most interesting

The people and story behind the Biltmore Estate

The Last Castle by Denise Kiernan 

Still the largest private residence ever constructed in the U.S. at 175,000 square feet; Biltmore Estate continues to hold public imagination.  I'd always thought, mistakenly, that Biltmore was built at the behest of the family patriarch Cornelius Vanderbilt (aka "The Commodore").  

In fact it was his grandson, George W. Vanderbilt, who acquired some 125,000 acres in North Carolina's western countryside among the Blue Ridge mountains, upon which the mansion was constructed. 

One alert, as other reviewers noted, this book has less detail concerning the construction process, materials, architectural features and maintenance requirements of the structure, than one might've expected from the title.  

A fuller indication of Ms. Kiernan's narrative focus is revealed by her subtitle, "The Epic Story of Love, Loss, and American Royalty in the Nation's Largest Home".  

For some stunning modern day visuals of the Biltmore estate (now part of a mere 8,000 acres at Ashville, NC); have a look at the Biltmore Company website found 🠊here.  

Justice Alito speaks out at national lawyers convention

Justice Samuel A. Alito gave a virtual address to a lawyers convention on Nov. 25th.  

At a little over 30 minutes; I'd recommend the YouTube video to anyone trying to understand why some Americans feel strongly that basic rights enumerated in the Constitution like Freedom of Speech, Freedom of Religion and Freedom of Assembly are being tested these days.   

This is not a dry legal lecture for lawyers.  Rather Justice Alito gives a clear overview of recent actions by the courts, legislators and special interests and how those actions could collectively dilute protections sought by the Framers.  

Example: the uproar over Nevada's COVID restrictions (overturned on appeal) that prohibited religious gatherings of more than 50 people (regardless of precautions taken), while permitting a percentage of capacity as the governing measure of people able to patronize a casino; even if that percentage equates to more than 50 people.

Here's the video....

Avoid shopworn buzz phrases

Business cliches are phrases that lack impact and often convey unintended impressions, or at least a serious lack of imagination. I’ve listed my top five overused business phrases....

1.      “Get the low hanging fruit” – This relic is normally meant to convey the speaker’s opinion on prioritization. Pursuing first whatever he/she advocates; will presumably result in a higher success rate because of fewer barriers. Be wary when you hear it. You may by closer to the orchard than the speaker and your gut may tell you that the fruit actually hangs higher, has already been picked, or already rotted.

2.       “It is….what it is” – Of course. What else could it be? If you wish to say we must accept the current state and move on. 

3.    Here's another classic cliché and one typically used to answer a very simple and honest question like, how are you? I'm referring to the retort, "I'm living the dream". It might have been amusing the first five times....but after that?

4.      “Let’s think outside the box” – This champion of tired metaphors reveals that the speaker using it to animate others is trying to inspire or reward freethinking -- but doesn't know how. 

5.      “Our people are our most valuable asset” – How many mission statements, speeches and ads, include this syrupy old slogan? It invites skepticism. List examples that demonstrate an organization’s commitment to employee well-being, as opposed to spouting a ubiquitous platitude.

www.freepik.com/photos/business"​>Business photo created by pch.vector - www.freepik.comption

A dried pasta revelation

Growing up, we ate pasta frequently in the Maddente home.  I still enjoy it; but all I'd ever learned about this staple is that it's a mortal sin to over cook it.  I never could discern any significant taste difference among the many different dried pastas on the market.  

Recently; I've learned something new.  Extrusion methods matter.

Food photo created by timolina - www.freepik.com

Here's a parallel.  Ever heard of "Steel Cut Oats"?  I used to think that's an either slightly pompous or at least a haute description used to sell oatmeal.  

I'm going to rethink that assumption and try steel cut oats.  That's because I've stumbled upon a dried pasta called "Bronze Cut" which is a reference to the metallurgy involved with the device that extrudes and cuts the pasta.  

For those interested in the science and engineering behind this alloy for pasta making purposes; here's an article.  For the rest of us, suffice it to say that the bronze cut process produces a noodle that's less dense and more porous.  It simply tastes better and it adheres to sauce (or sauce adheres to the pasta) ….better.  That's all I know.  

It costs a little more; but worth it.  Bon Appetit!  

A real estate CEO moves from CA to TX

.  

rex.com

Last Saturday, a CEO named Peter Rex published an opinion piece in the WSJ that attracted a fair amount of attention on LinkedIn.  The article is entitled, "I'm Leaving Seattle for Texas So My Employees Can Be Free"  . 

The views expressed in this piece seem reasonable and factual -- but unfortunately -- they might not become widely promulgated by traditional media.  

Read more about Mr. Rex here.  

The downside of low interest rates (updated 1/2/2026)

Columnist Jeff Sommer published a piece called, "Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates" in the May 17 edition of the New York Times. Mr. Sommer’s take is refreshing.  Monetary Doves and Pols on both sides of the aisle typically ignore the ill effects of low interest rates on conservative investors and senior citizens who receive low returns from their fixed income investments and don't have the time horizon for riskier investments.  

Mr. Sommer points out that in an ultra low rate world, retirees and those approaching retirement, are left with three poor choices... 

“Live on less, dip deeply into savings or take on more risk…”. 

A steady trough of cheap money and easy credit induces bad decisions that impact all of us.  As mentioned in this space over five years ago, a perennial ultra-low rate environment coupled with lax credit standards, was one of the factors that enabled the masses to over leverage and buy homes they couldn't afford, before the housing bubble burst.  

Business vector created by dooder - www.freepik.com

We hear much about the economic benefits of low interest rates including increased capital investment and consumer spending; but there's also a down side.  

Asset bubbles and inflationary pressures strike when the cost of credit stays too low, too long.  Yet, it's still easy to find pundits and politicians who always advocate for lower interest rates.  Cheap money.  Who's not for that?

As for the once unthinkable prospect of the FOMC taking short terms rates below zero (a scenario also cited in Sommer's column); it was comforting last week to hear Fed Chairman Powell publicly tamp down the likelihood.  

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1/2/2026 -- AI sourced supporting research for this post follows:

1. Chicago Fed: Underpriced Risk and Liquidity

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has detailed how "easy money" environments fundamentally alter lender behavior.

• Underpricing Risk: Research shows that excess liquidity encourages lenders to be overaggressive, often underpricing the risk of loans in hopes that growth will offset future losses.

• Historical Correlation: Analysis of the last 200 years of stock market bubbles indicates that, excluding war years, every major bubble occurred during periods of low inflation and low interest rates.

2. IMF (2025): Stretched Valuations and Stability

The most recent Global Financial Stability Report (October 2025) warns that the legacy of low-rate environments continues to pose risks.

• Valuation Disconnect: The report finds that financial stability risks remain elevated because asset prices are stretched well above their fundamental values.

• Nonbank Vulnerabilities: It highlights that nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), which grew significantly during the low-rate era, now act as "liquidity providers" in ways that could amplify market shocks if valuations suddenly correct.

3. Richmond Fed: The Housing Bubble Precedent

The Richmond Fed has published extensively on how low rates create "the perfect environment" for speculative bubbles.

• Speculative Shifts: Their research suggests that when returns on safe assets drop, investors speculate on riskier assets like housing to find yield, a primary driver of the early 2000s housing boom.

• Financial Frictions: Another brief explains that bubbles increase the net worth of borrowers artificially, which temporarily eases credit but leads to severe "bubbly" recessions when the prices collapse.

4. European Research: Impact on Savers and Pensions

Studies for the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and other EU bodies focus on the demographic toll of "low for long" rates.

• Solvency Pressures: Protracted low rates put immense pressure on the solvency of pension funds and life insurers that provide long-term return guarantees.

• Retirement Adequacy: The OECD notes that these environments force institutions to scale back benefit promises, directly impacting retirement income adequacy for conservative savers.

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Research Summary for Your Blog Post

Research Source	Key Supporting Document	Core Conclusion
Chicago Fed	Asset Price Bubbles Report	Low rates lead to excess liquidity and underpriced risk, fueling bubbles.
IMF (2025)	Global Financial Stability Report	Stretched asset valuations and nonbank financial risks threaten stability.
Richmond Fed	Asset Bubbles & Imbalances	Low rates were a primary factor in the housing bubble of the early 2000s.
ESRB / OECD	Macroprudential Policy Report	Savers and pension beneficiaries bear the brunt of low-for-long environments.

The public courtesy award goes to Ricky Gervais

A few winners at the Golden Globe Awards on January 5th decided to espouse their personal political views to the public, even after host Ricky Gervais admonished them not to do so.

Freepik image 

The majority of us don't tune in to the Golden Globes to watch Stars advocate for a cause celebre.  It's not a free speech issue; it's a public courtesy issue.  Want to speak out about Abortion?  How about Gun Rights or Gun Control?  OK; but please choose an appropriate forum.  Actor Charlton Heston spoke out about protecting Second Amendment rights in 2012 but he made his Gun Rights remarks at an NRA convention, not the Golden Globe Awards.  Big difference.

There's no shortage of outlets to express one's political opinions on one's own time.  Golden Globe Award viewers deserve to hear from invited artists about their art but not as polarizing crusaders.

Mr. Gervais is an intellectually honest Progressive who was speaking to his peers that evening because some of them insist on pontificating about matters having nothing to do with why they are being recognized.  He told them...

"So, if you do win an award tonight; don't use it as a platform to make a political speech."  

Then Mr. Gervais added....

"You’re in no position to lecture the public about anything," 

Bravo Ricky! 

  

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On 2/4/2025 Ricky Gervais posted this picture on X with a caption, "They're still not listening".  How right he is.

Viva Espana

My wife and I recently returned from a vacation in Spain.  I haven't posted in months and it's a pleasure to share some beauty and love that we witnessed. 

Let's start with the Spanish people themselves.  They are as warm and courteous as I'd heard and quite tolerant of Americans seeking assistance.  They're also, by and large, very well dressed! 

A word about our tour guide, Mr. Federico García Barroso.  Mr. García Barroso is, and I don't often use this word to describe others -- remarkable.  He's the kind of man who can brighten lives simply by doing what he loves to do, which is sharing his knowledge of Spain's rich history and art.  

An accomplished guide, Mr. García Barroso is also a lover of music and a fine tenor.  At the closing dinner for our travel group, he sang four songs.  One in French, one in Spanish, one in English and one in Italian.  Like I said....remarkable.  Here's a taste...CLICK HERE.

The treasure trove of art in Spain including sculptures, paintings and of course, architecture, has always been a source of pride for the Spanish.  An example; the Basilica known as the Sagrada Familia the construction of which, began in 1882, is one of the most stunning edifices I've ever seen.  Spanish authorities are working diligently to complete its construction by the 100th anniversary of the death of its renowned architect, Antoni Gaudi, in 2026.

Below you'll see a photo -- untouched and taken only with natural light -- of the interior.  I was amazed by the columns alone, which resemble giant trees in a luminous forest.  The tops of the columns literally "branch out" to support the top structure.  We learned that Gaudi's work contains rich symbolism of the natural world and the divine.  These columns are part of his expression. 

If you have the opportunity, please visit the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona.   



John Maddente photo 

T.S. Eliot and Robert S. McNamara

And the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. 

-- T. S. Eliot

About 15 years ago I discovered an exceptional documentary called, The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara.

Directed by Errol Morris, The Fog of War walks the viewer through most of the 20th century as told by former U.S. Secretary of Defense and World Bank President, Robert S. McNamara.  Mr. McNamara reflects on his life's lessons and uses the Eliot quote above, at a particularly moving stage of the film.  McNamara's heartfelt and detailed ruminations, the film clips, the music by Phillip Glass and still photos all work together to vividly capture milestones of the American experience.

The Fog of War was an Academy Award Winner for best documentary feature in 2003 and I'll recommend the film for the rest of my days.  

*image above wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/Thomas_Stearns_Eliot_by_Lady_Ottoline_Morrell

A new book from Jonathan Hoenig

This coming November, Capitalist Pig Hedge Fund manager and business media figure, Jonathan Hoenig will release A New Textbook of Americanism: The Politics of Ayn Rand.  The book, edited by Mr. Hoenig, contains a collection of essays from notable writers in the Objectivist school, including one from Mr. Hoenig himself ("On Property Rights").  

Cover page image courtesy of J. Hoenig

Public Twitter Image - Jonathan Hoenig

A local hero to recall on Memorial Day

Somehow I missed this local news article about two years ago on the 72nd anniversary of D-Day.  The details of a D-Day jump with the 82nd Airborne Division (and subsequent trip back to Normandy 72 years later) is told in this Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article by Meg Jones.   Yesterday, I met the gentleman who was the subject of that piece, Mr. Ralph Ticcioni of New Berlin, Wisconsin. (Disclosure: Ralph is Uncle to one of my brothers-in-law).  

French Legion of Honour recipient, Ralph Ticcioni
John Maddente photo

As I listened to the 95 year old veteran speak about his experience, I marveled at his deep humility.  As a paratrooper that fateful day, Ralph along with thousands of comrades were dropped behind enemy lines.  Unlike his comrades, he landed smack onto a farm rooftop in Cherbourg, France whereupon he had to cut himself loose from his own parachute which was entangled on a weather vane.  Some history readers and viewers of the movie, Saving Private Ryan will recall that Cherbourg was a location of importance during the invasion.  Speaking of the movie, Ralph told me that when he viewed the first twenty minutes of the film; he thought he was watching an actual news reel of the event.  (Many D-Day veterans have expressed a similar reaction to that segment).   

Ralph could easily recall the gear he carried that day, including the amount of ammunition and all the weapons he was issued which included a sidearm (.45 caliber semiautomatic pistol), several hand grenades and a Thompson sub-machine gun (which was swapped for an M1 Carbine rifle after paratroopers reunited with American supply units).  

I was pleased to have met this fine man yesterday.  To all like him, living or not, God bless and thank you for defending freedom!

More than a napkin

Below is a humble cocktail napkin from a recent flight.  The inscription -- which I failed to notice at first -- has a richer significance. 

John Maddente photo

After I buckled up, a man next to me begin to banter with our flight attendant who obviously loved her work (I'll call her Laura).  Although he gave me permission to identify him for this post, I recall only his last name -- Weingarten.  Back to the flight...

Laura and Mr. Weingarten appeared to know one another rather well.  When Laura left to serve other passengers, Mr. Weingarten pointed out that both of our napkins contained this friendly, hand-written, greeting and that she had produced one for him on a previous flight.  What I learned next was my inspiration for this post.

Mr. Weingarten explained that on a previous flight, two other flight attendants took notice of Laura's gracious attitude toward her customers and criticized her napkin gesture (not knowing they were within earshot of Mr. Weingarten) because it made them look deficient. 

Shortly after Laura's colleagues finished upbraiding her, Mr. Weingarten motioned Laura to come over for a private word which he concluded with this admonition... 

"Don't let them crush your spirit".

The story continues.  A busy executive who travels over 150 days per year, Mr. Weingarten found a portal the airline uses to garner customer feedback.  He supplied his flight details and Laura's real name in order to extol her exemplary service and attitude. 

Airline managements take these passenger inputs seriously. Laura was commended as a result.  I know not whether the other two attendants were cited in Mr. Weingarten's message, but this post is dedicated to all the Laura-types in our midst.  Don't let others crush their spirit.

Of small plates and anxious diners

Since childhood, I’ve had an almost religious attraction to good restaurants, but now in my late 50s I’m speaking out against some of them and a form of dining that began to proliferate across the US about ten years ago. The restaurant concept is called, “small plates” and a small plates dinner in this case, is a misnomer.  It's more like gastronomic chess.  Here's a typical small plates experience....

Small plates photo -- Wikipedia

After eyeing a group of baby plates spewed across a table that's invariably too small to accommodate all of them, I’m drawn to some culinary gems far more than others.  Now -- how much of the great stuff shall I eat? I want to be mindful of my fellow diners. Do I fill up on marginal stuff? Wait, did she order those marinated artichokes as her primary dish? How many small plates shall we order next -- one, two, or ten? By the way, who voted for which plate? Are you going to finish those artichokes?    

I hear a sharp rebuke coming from a Small Plate devotee, “Just order more small plates that you like and don't sweat the rest!”   No, thank you. I’ll go elsewhere and enjoy my entree in an adult-plate-size. Why complicate this experience with an unassigned barrage of appetizers?   

Economics 101 for the rest of us

Warren Buffet and Carl Icahn are famous investors but fewer people may know Ray Dalio.  Mr. Dalio founded an investment firm 40 years ago called Bridgewater Associates.  With $160 billion under management, Bridgewater runs one of the largest hedge funds in the world.

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, Bridgewater website

I recently discovered (among 3 million other people) a thirty minute YouTube video that Mr. Dalio produced to explain fundamentals of what he calls the economic machine. 

This video, which he narrates has been translated into several languages and viewed over 3,200,000 times.  The content begins slowly with basic concepts but progresses to explain the primary levers that policy-makers use to manage and stimulate the economy.  You can find it here.  

There are numerous lessons cleverly and clearly explained here.  Example: I hadn't appreciated why economists seem obsessed with Wage Growth until I watched this simple animated video.  The importance of wage growth has less to do with the oft-used and politically-charged phrase, "income inequality" and more to do with our collective ability to consume and mitigate credit bubbles.

Also explained, is the concept of Credit, which Mr. Dalio asserts, "...is the most important part of the economy and probably the least understood". Other explanatory notes...

• "A beautiful deleveraging" of our massive debt and deficits is the catalyst for a soft landing we all pray for in order to avert "social disorder" and societal collapse.  
• Spending cuts are generally what people think of when they hear about "austerity" measures exercised by government, individuals and businesses to lower spending on goods and services.  
• Wealth redistribution occurs primarily through higher taxation on upper income Americans.  
• Money-printing refers to Federal Reserve purchases of government bonds and other financial assets ($2T since the Great Recession alone).

So what's the correct mix and emphasis of lever-pulling required for a soft landing?  Perhaps Mr. Dalio will address that question -- and what exactly is meant by a soft landing -- on this same platform at http://www.economicprinciples.org.