Calling the market peak -- REVISITED

 Greetings!

Based upon feedback I received from one of my valued seven readers, what follows is a refinement of the views expressed in the previous post about market timing.  

Recall we're talking about predicting the direction of the equity market as a whole, or a large swath of it like the S&P 500 --- not individual stocks.

I didn't mean to imply that one cannot utilize deep experience and technical analysis to correctly predict a stock market peak (or trough) some of the time.  

There's an old saying that even a broken clock is right twice a day.  

However, who's consistently made these bold calls with enough accuracy to "beat" the market?  If you accept the proposition that the answer to that last question is nobody -- why would one ever wager more than they could afford to lose by trying?  

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Think you can call the market peak? Think again.

I know most of my limitations.  I learned awhile ago, for example, that I'm not a stock picker.  I also learned that trying to predict the stock market's trajectory is a futile and dangerous exercise.  

One financial adviser whom I've known for decades (disclosure: we've been lifelong friends since childhood) addressed the oft-asked question -- When-will-the-stock-market-crash? -- in his recent client newsletter.  David C. Hoelke is a Minneapolis-based adviser with Focus Financial who wrote...   

"The chances of individuals guessing when the stock market is going to crash is approximately the same as my guessing when the sun is going to explode.  Since I can't reasonably hazard a guess, I prefer to go about my day without worrying about the sun exploding."

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