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Sunday, October 06, 2024

Soft landing or hard landing, it's an achievable mark

This week at a conference, I listened to featured speaker, Austan Goolsbee, who is President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, a noted Economist and frequent contributor to the financial press.  He's also instantly likeable. 

Official Portrait
One day I'll post on entertaining economists because there are several on both sides of the aisle and Dr. Goolsbee, an Obama cabinet appointee and acolyte, will definately be part of that post.

An amusing story Mr. Goolsbee told about a pleasant sense of wonder he experienced while attending a meeting in the Oval Office with President Obama and Larry Summers (the pleasant part ended abruptly) made the audience roar.  

Afterward, during the Q and A period, I anxiously awaited my turn with the microphone.  When prompted, I found the "on" switch with only minor assistance.  My question to Mr. Goolsbee, which I'll paraphrase, was...

We hear much debate from economists and financial journalists about the likelihood of a so-called soft landing.  Some say the pace of rate hikes was too slow, others say the risk will come from cutting rates too slowly.  Whether the outcome will be soft or hard, what exactly constitutes "a landing".  In other words, how will we know who was correct? 

I watched Dr. Goolsbee as I asked my question and witnessed his nodding head.  Then he gave a relatively lengthy answer.  His central points were:

  • yes, nailing down the definition of a landing is a fuzzy area but...
  • given where we've been, if you consider the Fed's dual mandate and see employment levels at desired level X and you also see inflation levels at desired level Y, then you've pretty much landed softly.
Again, I'm paraphrasing his response, but those were my key takeaways.  I guess there's no final buzzer to signal the end of the game; so if one waits long enough for conditions to change, most any economic seer can claim to be at least partially vindicated.


Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Have they forgotten Reagan's 11th Commandment?

Official portrait, 1981

Having grown weary of internecine clashes within the Republican Party, I recently had an exchange with a local GOP leader.  Here's what I wrote....

"Thanks for your response.  You mention I should share my thoughts with the State GOP.  Fair point.  Reagan’s “Eleventh Commandment” applies to all Republicans. 

I’m approaching retirement which will free up my time to learn, but right now, I won’t pretend to be steeped in state politics.  I know Vos is controversial to say the least and I have much to learn about the influences of the lobbies in your message.  I have no reason to doubt the veracity of your claims about who’s ruling the roost and those special interests concern me. 

Now, for added context on where I’m coming from, bear with me…. 

I’m a lifelong Wisconsinite who’s voted Republican at state and federal levels for 42 years.  That’s right.  I’ve not cast a single vote for a Democrat and never regretted it -- but these days -- my party is at war with itself and we’re fighting Dems with one arm tied behind our backs.  Two Republicans at odds with each other often forget they both have more in common with each other, than either person will ever have with Democrats. 

I’m a pragmatist because without victory in key elections, we improve little.  You write about good quality candidates vs. establishment types.  I’m not sure what constitutes an establishment candidate, but I’ve seen GOP candidates, who say the right things, but prove to be ineffective campaigners:  Tim Michels for Governor (Rebecca Kleefisch would’ve been better), Tommy Thompson (as much as I admire all that he did in his prime as Governor, his effort for a US Senate seat against Baldwin was miserable), Sarah Palin (she almost single-handedly sunk McCain) etc.  Were these candidates establishment, or non-establishment types?  I’m not sure the label matters.  They all lost. 

Either way, we need to allow room for debate within the GOP without destroying each other.  For example, I’ve long admired Paul Ryan for his fiscal sanity and unflappable temperament in the DC cesspool, but I totally disagree with him about his choice to not vote for Trump.  It’s a binary choice in November.  If one does NOT vote for Trump, one is by definition helping Harris. 

On the other hand, Trump’s ridiculous remarks about Ryan being the worst Speaker of the House in American history and all the compost Trump hurls at other decent Republicans needs to be countered and freely debated within the party.  If it isn’t, then Ryan becomes correct about Trump being a Non-Conservative Populist requiring total fealty from the rest of us. 

There’s a common theme here--I see few conservative voices on college campuses, little balance in the mainstream media, and little to no tolerance for disagreement within Republican caucuses whenever Trump comes up.  Conservatives must get together, allow reasoned debate among us and run GOP candidates who can win in Madison and up ballot.

 Respectfully,

John J. Maddente"

Friday, September 06, 2024

They say life is a journey

They say life is a journey not a destination, but I want a destination.  Written while in a somewhat foul mood, what follows are 25 randomly itemized 'things' I don't care for (Mother taught me that it's better to put it that way instead of saying, "I hate" such and such).  

Some of these items are mere dislikes, others indeed border on hatred.  You decide which is which. ๐Ÿ˜‡

THINGS I DON'T CARE FOR:

1. Merging traffic.

2. Political posturing at non-political events I pay to attend.

3.  Any sort of fruit placed on a pizza.

4.  Reality TV shows.

5.  Shiny, spherical lawn ornaments placed on pedestals in front of a home.

6.  People who prey on the weak or disadvantaged.

7.  People who covet criminal rights over victim rights.    

8.  MSNBC.

9.  The short-lived customer satisfaction from driveway sealing services.

10. Small plates dining.

11.  Diet Coke.

12.  Insects and cats.

13.  Aggressive, unleashed animals.

14.  Our southern border controls (or lack thereof).

15.  More than 3 consecutive days without sunshine.

16.  Lawn and garden weeds.

17.  Loud bars or restaurants where one can't hear a companion's voice.

18.  Approximately 66% of all elected Democrats.

19.  Potholes.

20.  School bullies, car jackers, muggers, rapists and the lot.

21.  Indifferent customer service representatives.

22.  Marshmallows.

23.  Dirty public restrooms.

24.  Drivers who don't use their directionals.

25.  Bunker shots.

        

Monday, July 29, 2024

Baseball is already for everyone

Image by Racool_studio</a> on Freepik
Take me out to the ballgame....

Attending a major league baseball game is a thoroughly American experience.  It's also a unique game where the defense has the ball and that ball is often hurled at 100 mph.  

That crack of the bat, the ball going up, up, up and the outfielder craning his head to the sky as he backsteps on the warning track while fans brace to see if he'll crash into the wall.  

It's a classic sport with something to delight everyone.  As spectators, we usually can forget about problems for a few innings.  Or, at least we could.

Now, the MLB, its franchise owners, the players union, or some combination thereof, have joined the ranks of those in the NFL who thought it was a great idea to radiate political messages in giant letters in the endzone.

I hadn't noticed anything similar in professional baseball until recently.  Just beyond the center field wall at Target Field in Minneapolis, one can see, actually one must see, a large sign blaring two words: "END RACISM". 

Who are proponents of the Target Field signage going to influence?  Put another way, who besides actual racists, would advocate for preserving racism?  The intersection of sports and politics raises concerns.  

For example, this practice could beckon all comers for equal expression opportunities.  One day will we see a large "END WOKEISM" or "BACK THE BADGE" sign in the right field bleachers?  I hope not, because overt political posturing -- whether Conservative or Progressive -- does not belong at sporting events.

All forms of injustice, including racism, are abhorrent.  I salute those who fight injustice, but I also strongly believe that every citizen has a right to pay for and receive the pleasurable escapism of attendance at a sporting event (or a "Hamilton" performance) without intrusive political messaging.  

Now, other recent changes to the game of baseball have been welcome and they involve no political expression whatever, so let's go there baseball fans....  

Many games were simply too long, but by adding the pitch clock, limiting trips to the mound for pitcher chats and implementing other measures for extra inning play, the MLB has effectively shortened the average game time, while preserving the experience for fans.  

Most unnecessary delays involve pitchers in some way, shape, or form.  Relief pitchers warm up in the bullpen, so why not reduce the amount of time they can burn after taking the mound before they face their first batter?  

If the manager is going to call for that relief pitcher, why can't he just signal that from the dugout.  His walk to the mound followed by on field discussion with the manager, catcher and a friendly pat on the back for the outgoing pitcher--which is followed by more mound chat--is unnecessary.  Just zip Joe Reliever in a golf cart directly to the mound and play ball! 

Finally, let's keep home plate umpires, but use technology to perfectly call balls and strikes.  Way too many strikes are called balls and vise versa.  This change would avoid disputes over poor calls and limit fan and player aggravation over truly God awful calls that follow so many pitches. 

Baseball fans vigorously debate changes like these, but they do so in the context of what's good for this sport that's lasted over 180 years.  Such debates don't involve ideology or political party affiliation.  Let's hope they never do. 

Monday, July 01, 2024

Democrats five new strict requirements for next presidential debate

1. President Biden's staff, in their sole discretion, will frame each debate question in advance of the debate

2. President Biden can view a Teleprompter live wired to his staff during and after the debate, until he's off camera

3. President Biden shall be allowed unfettered use of stimulants before, during and after the debate 

4. President Biden shall not appear on split screen while watching opponent speak, nor shall opponent appear on split screen while President Biden speaks

5. President Biden, at the teleprompting of his staff, will start and end the debate at a time of his choosing


Friday, May 10, 2024

The Net Promoter Score (NPS) and other superficial consumer research

Check out my latest  post on LinkedIn if you are interested in that common question designed to tell an organization something useful about customer satisfaction and loyalty.  

Aside from leading marketers to specious conclusions, singular use of the NPS question is annoying to the consumer.  For many of us, it's simply not the question we want to answer, nor do we want our views confined to a Likert Scale for marketing purposes.  They just don't want to deal with unstructured data, which could tell them so much more...

Image by upklyak on Freepik



Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Priceless clips from 5 of the funniest films ever made

Image by freepik

 






Film titles appear below in alphabetical order...


Thursday, April 11, 2024

Reviewing products and services online

Image by freepik
Who doesn't read consumer reviews on the Internet?  I take them seriously when making purchase decisions and while drafting them after my own experiences.

Many of my reactions as a consumer come in oral rather than written form.  For example, a couple of months ago I left a voice message for a service manager about outstanding service I received from one of his auto technicians.  While traveling last month, I spoke directly with the chef of a restaurant to compliment his dish, after telling the manager about it.

In essence, the majority of my reactions as a consumer -- whether published online, or spoken, are positive.  This past week was abnormal in that I published two reviews of healthcare professionals: one an Orthodontist (positive) and the other an Optometrist (negative).  

The hyperlink to the Orthodontist will take you to the website associated with this business that dispenses superb care and service; in my view.  I issued a glowing, albeit brief, "5 star" , Google review for them.  

The hyperlink to the Optometrist, will take you to a one star review I wrote on Yelp, which reveals my poor experience.

Note to the gentleman in the Philippines emailing me about online safety and a shared desire to root out fake reviews: thanks for your messages, but I haven't been able to confirm your identity and your website is not yet functional.


   


Saturday, April 06, 2024

A post about nothing

If Seinfeld became a hit TV program as a show about "nothing," then this post is a nod to that empty theme of everyday life.  Here are two items about nothing in particular... 

    By George Webb Corporation - http://www.georgewebb.com


    1. For three consecutive mornings, I've happily eaten breakfast at George Webb, a Wisconsin chain of some 30+ counter and booth style restaurants which first opened for business in 1948.  I've been enjoying them -- and particularly their cheese hash browns -- since the Seventies.  However, I'm ordering their free water as my beverage for the foreseeable future.  I recognize the ill effects of that silent thief we call inflation, but $3.30 for their small size glass of institutional orange juice?  Ridiculous.  

John Maddente photo

2. I'm guessing few of my seven readers are familiar with Luckbox magazine.  Its stated focus on "Life, Money, Probability" is geared toward Traders and other professional investors.  I do not belong to that group, but a copy of this magazine at an airport lounge with snappy graphics and offbeat topics, caused me to subscribe.  

The latest issue has an interesting article on the high stakes fight to preserve, or slowly kill, AM radio.  Spoiler alert:  The piece reminds readers that AM radio remains relevant to 82 million American listeners and also government officials that rely upon it as a medium for public emergency alerts.  What's more, AM radio defenders in Congress are remarkably bipartisan.  

Today I close with a friendly jab at the Luckbox editor of this article.  Dear Madam or Sir, Re: the copy under "Night Radio" --  I believe your columnist intended to cite the laws of physics not "psychics".   Your oversight reminded me of a M*A*S*H episode when Col. Potter exclaims, "We order rectal thermometers, we get spark plugs. Both useful articles, but hardly interchangeable."



Monday, February 12, 2024

Cum On Feel the Noize

Image By freepik

S
lade was a 1970s British band that could wake up any audience.  As a teen, I was mesmerized by Noddy Holder's raspy voice, his onstage penguin steps with mirrored stove pipe hat and the sound of Slades' instruments.  One track called, "Cum On Feel the Noize" (yes, they had a penchant for deliberate misspellings with song titles like, "Look Wot You Dun") still warms my nostalgic heart.  I thought of that song today while listening to an NPR podcast about Trump's recent NATO comments.

There were two parts to Trump's NATO invective.  The first should be ignored as "noise" and the other should be heeded as a "signal".  First, the ridiculous assertion that he'd invite Putin to invade NATO countries that don't pay their bills should be ignored, but the second one about NATO members not paying their "bills" requires closer examination as a signal.

One problem with the American Left, is that they fail to understand why Trump was elected in 2016 and instead they focus on Trump's hyperbolic noise which, to be fair, is often preposterous or dangerous.  However, I believe that most Trump barbs and threats are designed to agitate others, fire up the base and keep him in the headlines.  

In this case, I heard a podcast commentator -- obsessed with Trump's use of the noun "bills" --  remind listeners that NATO "is not a country club" with its members getting billed.  That observation is noise.  Of course, no administrative entity issues invoices to 31 member nations, but members have agreed to fund a minimum of 2% of their GDP to pay for their own defense.  

In the last report by the NATO Secretary General  (the 2022 report was issued before Finland became a member in 2023) just 7 of the 30 NATO member nations met their minimum 2% of GDP military spend commitment.  That's the signal.  

Most NATO countries are not paying their share.  The rest is just noise.


Saturday, November 11, 2023

Biden family transactions revisited

"Moral clarity" is a phrase I heard recently and it comes to mind when sorting out these troubling times and who's done what for whom and why.  In the case of the $200,000 (or $240,000) sum(s) transferred between the Biden brothers, there is absolute clarity someplace.  We just don't know where it is yet.

The money transfers under scrutiny, either represent a legitimate extension and repayment of a loan, or they don't.  Much seems to hinge upon a trust account established by a Delaware law firm used to transact business on behalf of ___________ and that's the question....who?  

Rep. Comer and company seek to prove that the trust fund was used to launder money for the benefit of Hunter Biden, his Uncle and partners -- and ultimately to compensate the elder Joe Biden.  

The White House and their acolytes seek to prove that the trust account in question was controlled exclusively by Joe Biden and simply used as a conduit for the funds extended by Joe Biden to his brother, in the form of a personal, interest-free loan.

Neither side has definitively proven its case.  Only one side can be correct and that's the missing clarity.

Image by wirestock on Freepik


Saturday, September 23, 2023

Biden family storm potential

Image by vecstock on Freepik
If President Joe Biden didn't have enough to worry about with epic low approval ratings, a massive border crisis, rampant inflation, unclaimed cocaine deposits in the White House and a deeply polarized Congress, the corruption charges levied against NJ Senator Bob Menendez yesterday reminded me of the President's other smoldering problems...  

#1.   "10 held by H for the big guy?"  According to an article from the Washington Post Fact Checker, an email from one of Hunter's business associates proposes a profit allocation of 20% for each associate except for Hunter's Uncle Jim Biden, who would get 10% -- and a remaining 10% allocable to the "big guy" which would be held by Hunter.   

The email author has asserted that the big guy actually refers to Jim Biden, not Joe Biden.  However, one of the other business associates in receipt of the email, said that's false and that it actually referred to Hunter Biden's father.  Who's telling the truth?

The project was a flop and so there's no financial benefit (at least from this venture) that inured to the benefit of whomever the big guy is, but the whole Jim Biden--Big Guy explanation is odd.  If the email author and business partner was already proposing a 10% allocation for Jim Biden, why would he propose that his nephew hold another 10% for him?  Why escrow this 10% kicker with Hunter instead of just paying Jim Biden 20%?  And is there a history of these business partners calling Jim Biden the big guy?   

#2.  The second problem is an allegation that if proven, could become equally injurious to President Biden's administration.  The allegation is that the Justice Department may have deliberately impeded the investigation of Hunter Biden's tax problems.  That allegation is supported by two highly credible IRS sources.  If this can be proven, President Biden would presumably allege he knew nothing of it and sack Justice officials on the order of President Nixon's firing of Archibald Cox in 1973 to thwart impeachment.  Of course, if it is proven that Joe Biden did know of investigation obstruction; let alone approved of it, he's finished.  

I hasten to add, that's a big "if" and it's too early to credibly draw such a conclusion.  Yet, if problem #2 has legs, America would sadly witness corruption at least as serious as the famous cover up of a third rate burglary.         

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Saturday, September 16, 2023

A late summer rant and a rave


Image by macrovector on Freepik

1. Let's start with a new movie called, "Dumb Money".  After watching the trailer for Dumb Money and seeing a couple of ads, the experience raised a question in my mind....is it OK to criticize a film one has never seen?  Logic dictates that the answer is no.  Call me illogical.

What turned me off initially was the commercial touting how the film"...gives a riotous middle finger to the capitalist swine on Wall Street."  My, how deliciously Populist.  The film creators have obviously positioned Dumb Money as a paean to the little guy fighting against the evil asset managers, punctuated with an F-bomb per minute, until the digitally-wired counter culture decks the big money guys holding a large short position.  

Yes it happened, but I'm tired of class war art.  In this case, people will make a lot of money by trashing Capitalism and its adherents.  Quite a paradox.

2. Let's end with a positive take on American Express's new method to redeem cardmember reward points.  In the old days, if you wanted to cover a portion of your card charges with points; you had to go through this ritual of scrolling through transactions and applying points individually by transaction, in order to obtain the credit against your balance of charges.  Not anymore!  

One click and the entire value of your points is credited against your next bill.  No more trolling and scrolling through your transactions and applying points by transaction to obtain the credit.  Stupendous.   





Monday, August 21, 2023

Parsing the out of office reply

We all use it, but how should we use it and when?  I'm talking about that automatic email feature known as an "Out of Office" reply.  

Let's ignore the when consideration for now; but it's the "how" behind the usage of the out of office reply that piques my interest today.  I received one recently that reads exactly like this with nothing added before or afterward:  

"I'm ooo."  

That's it.  I'm ooo.  First, imagine receiving a voicemail greeting like that -- spoken exactly the same way followed by a beep to record a message.  As a caller I'd be speechless.  

Now consider, that you need something from the email author of that "ooo".  You might reasonably conclude after receiving this sorry example above that he/she: 

a) doesn't know when he/she will return 

b) doesn't wish to be bothered and 

c) doesn't care enough about the email recipient to mention an alternative in his/her absence.

I understand there's been an increasing desire among many in the workforce to have a clear delineation between work time and personal time each day, but that desire shouldn't trump common courtesy, or common sense.  

Here are two simple guidelines for composing that out of office reply:

1.  Give the reader some idea of when you'll be back on the job and reading your emails, or at least the frequency with which you plan to pay attention to email in the coming days. 

2.  More importantly; give the recipient an alternative.  Mention either another email address of someone who can handle a need for action, or if you want to handle responses yourself; invite the sender to text those urgent matters to your cell phone.

Within an hour of posting my little screed above about out of office replies; I received an excellent example of one that allows me to close this post on a positive note.  Here's an "ooo" done right:

"I am currently out of the office on vacation the week of 8/21 and will be back at it on Monday 8/28.   I will be checking email at least once a day and will try to get back to you timely for anything that is urgent.  Send a text for anything especially urgent.  Thanks"

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Tuesday, July 04, 2023

Normandy reviewed

Last month I walked the beaches of Normandy and in so doing fulfilled a longing first realized as a young boy during the 1970s while reading about D-Day and Operation Overlord.  

That longing was stoked in 1998 after viewing the film Saving Private Ryan with it's horrific, albeit accurate, depiction of the slaughter and ultimate triumph of American forces at Omaha Beach on June 6th, 1944.  


John Maddente photo


The structures occupied by German soldiers firing MG-42 machine guns @ 1200 rounds per minute from the top of a ridge, were not visible to me while walking the beach.  The view of those remaining machine gun nests, my Guide instructed, are part of another tour (disappointing).

My feeling while present on those beaches was one more of awe - for example, seeing the 100 foot cliffs the Rangers scaled at Pointe Du Hoc - than the raw emotion I felt while walking the nearby Normandy American Cemetery and Memorial (below).  

If you've ever spoken with veteran who's experienced combat and suggest that he is a hero, he will likely answer that the real heroes never returned.

       
John Maddente selfie

  

Saturday, March 11, 2023

And the debate winner is....

 

freepik image

Although I was intrigued today by an article in the WSJ from Mike Edleson and Andy Puzder, I will not share my views about ESG investing.  Is it moral or amoral?  Sensible?  Profitable?  Suffice it to say, one can make a reasonable case for or against ESG investing depending upon measurement criteria, objectives and definitions.  

I will however express my views about another equally polarizing topic: foods and beverages!  I won't equivocate on that topic.  Here's a tasty sample of seven culinary flashpoints that are suitable for socially-acceptable debates.

Pizza & Hot Dogs

Possibly America's favorite food, I must have thin crust pizza with cracker crisp qualities and zesty toppings (toppings is a whole topic for another post).  To my friends in Chicago; please forgive me, but what you call "Deep Dish Pizza" is actually a satisfying tomato casserole with too much dough.  However, Chicago can lay claim to the finest hot dogs (and I agree, no ketchup on a dog allowed).  For store bought beef frankfurters; I'm partial to Hebrew National brand.

Bacon

Make mine crisp.  This iconic cut of meat from the hog's belly should not be served limp, chewy, or with visible fat globules.

Coke vs. Pepsi

Talk about polarizing debates!  Cola devotees might never patronize both giant beverage makers, but I do.  Diet Pepsi is not only wildly superior to Diet Coke, but I find Diet Coke almost undrinkable.  Regarding Coke Zero vs Pepsi Zero -- I'll give Coke the edge.

Gluten

Follow your Doctor's or Nutritionist's advice.  Gluten doesn't affect me.

Peanuts

When did this onslaught of Peanut allergies begin?  Why did it begin?  I love these little legumes and Virginia Peanuts are the best I've found.  Please do not serve me the un-salted type and consider serving Peanuts really cold.  That chill factor is something I learned from a dear friend with a serious taste for chocolate covered Peanuts.

Charcoal and Smokers vs. Gas Grilling

For purposes of taste comparison -- there is no comparison.  Charcoal is best.  I sometimes hear the argument about the speed of Gas Grilling, to which I normally respond, "What's your hurry?"  The same principle applies to smokers vs. gas grills -- smoking is well worth the wait.

Orange Juice

There are few things in this life I find as gratifying as a glass of freshly-squeezed orange juice.  Unfortunately, every substitute for the fresh variety I have found distasteful.  Take McDonald's, I've long believed that their orange juice is the worst-tasting item on the breakfast whole menu.

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Friday, February 24, 2023

Because it's not theirs to change

Freepik image
This week 
there was controversy stemming from a publisher's decision to edit versions of children's stories written by the late Roald Dahl.  The edits, whether inspired by Netflix (who according to Forbes purchased the rights to Dahl's work) or the publisher Puffin Books, sparked a public outcry and PR nightmare.

The publisher curated an alternative version to the original work from Dahl's Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, (a story later adapted to make the film, Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory), ostensibly to remove insensitive terms.

There are several reasons why this ill-conceived, if well-intentioned attempt at inclusiveness -- a term becoming increasingly elastic -- failed miserably.  I'm not discussing the evils of censorship today.  Altering original art work to appeal to others is ill advised for another reason.....it's not theirs to change (and doing so can backfire).  

One can obviously own the legal right to another's intellectual property, or the physical manifestation of it, say an oil painting.  Yet, just because one has the enabling force of law to alter someone else's original art, doesn't make it right, or sensible, to add a few personal brushstrokes to a classic.  Let me illustrate with an example.  

There's an iconic rock n' roll song called, "Fortunate Son", which was a protest song written about the Vietnam War and recorded by Creedence Clearwater Revival ("CCR") in the late 1960s.  It's a great song.

Now, imagine that I purchased the rights to that song and decided to publicly release a NEW version with lyrics, more to my personal liking.  My justification might be that I want the song to appeal to Conservative listeners; so we need to update the original lyrics.  

We'll leave untouched, the original arrangement, tempo, time signatures etc. but using the wizardry of modern sound engineering, we'll just tweak the vocals by dubbing in my new lyrics.  

I rewrote those song lyrics below by crossing out some original words and adding new ones in bold font.  I kept the syllable count of each line exactly the same.  If you read the altered lyrics below, it won't take long to understand why changing someone else's popular artform to impart one's own worldview, is a bad idea and likely to mobilize intense opposition.  

My apologies in advance to John Fogerty who wrote the song and to CCR fans everywhere. I offer this wordsmithing below only to make a point.  I "own" my edits and nothing more.  Now cue the song, click MORE and let's rock!   

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Holiday thoughts in 2022 (good feelings)

 Greetings 

I'm grateful for many things this holiday season and I'm posting a few of the less obvious ones below:

  • Arby's limited time hamburger offering.  Yes, the Deluxe Wagyu Steakhouse Burger is so good, I've written to an Arby's executive urging his organization to make it a permanent menu item.
  • John Authers' Bloomberg column.  Mr. Authers wrote for the Financial Times for years before moving to Bloomberg.  He's funny, reliably prolific (not sure how he pumps out his rich articles almost daily) and especially well-rounded -- Finance & Economics (obviously), Sports if a bit heavy at times on soccer (sorry 'football'), Music, Film and History.
  • An unnamed community organization that allowed me to scale back my voluntary involvement with grace.
  • A glorious week off to do things of the sort I'm doing today -- reading, writing, cooking, listening to music CDs (yes, I still use that medium without apologies -- right now I'm enjoying k.d. lang's "recollection") and later I'll be streaming RUSH videos at ridiculous hours of the evening.
  • It's with personal satisfaction I include Carvana's service for their streamlined process to buy and sell a used vehicle, without ever setting foot in a dealership.  

Last but not least, I'm reminded that "Jesus is the reason for the season".



Sunday, May 22, 2022

Adding it up: too much commercial time

Like a pebble in your shoe that won't go away; I've long been annoyed by the amount of ad time viewers suffer through while watching broadcast TV and Cable TV.  Internet streamers and social media viewers are not immune either.  More on that score in a moment.

The increased viewer burden is not your imagination.  See Toni Fitzgerald's Forbes article, "Yes, You Are Seeing More Commercials Than Ever Before".  The theme was echoed by Gerry Smith of Bloomberg in his 2019 piece; "TV networks vowed to cut back on commercials. Instead, they stuffed in more"  

The unabashed Capitalist in me hastens to add that the ad industry is an essential component of a robust consumer-based economyThis post is about advertisers and media platforms practicing reasonableness and a more viewer-considerate methodology.  

We all land on web pages that hijack the viewer with an unwanted solicitation blasting on the screen before one can even view anything relevant.  We're often ambush-surveyed too, with that vapid net promoter score question (but that's another post).  

Now consider streaming TV by way of one example from my personal entertainment viewing habits.... watching YouTube.  I love the free access to music videos and movie shorts on YouTube and in exchange, I willingly watch and listen to ads that appear in-between songs and film clips.  It's a fair tradeoff.    

However, here's the worst example of viewer ad intrusion that I can think of.  

A shot of my recent YouTube music video selections below....

Imagine that instead of me watching one of my prized music videos, you're watching a football game with seconds left on the clock.  Your home team is down by 2 points but has the ball on fourth down 40 yards from the opposing team's goal line.  Next, your field goal kicker watches the snap go to the holder and then instantaneously --- your TV screen converts to an ad for motor oil.  

That's essentially what YouTube often allows to happen to viewers watching a music video.  The artists are performing beautifully and at some point, DURING THE SONG -- they cut to a mini commercial.  Fortunately, it doesn't happen often; but it needn't happen at all.  

I was taught to offer a solution or try to help matters after you grouse about something; so, here's my post-grouse attempt...

 YouTube could easily increase ad time between songs instead of inserting mini ads during the song (or film clip).  The platform could realize the same amount of ad time, without the obnoxious interruptions to the viewer.   





Friday, December 03, 2021

Food with purpose

Many times I've driven past the military vehicle and large sign in front of Mission BBQ with curiosity, but never enough to actually go in and check it out.  Today I did so; and I'll be back.  

My dining companion explained that the franchise began out of efforts from two military veterans who'd served together in the Middle East.  He went on to explain that at noon -- which was moments away -- we'd likely see the place stop normal activities to observe the national anthem.  It happened at noon sharp and it was great.

My whole experience began by walking into a pleasantly rustic environment with loads of military and patriotic memorabilia all punctuated by a wonderful smoky aroma from the BBQ.  This is an organization that gives back and is quite serious about its mission.  However, the whole thing would collapse if the food fell short of the brand and purpose but it doesn't--some of the best BBQ I've had and each table is equipped with six -- yes count them -- six different BBQ sauces.  What more could I want?

Mission BBQ public website


Tuesday, October 05, 2021

Price Is Primary - a new book from Jonathan Hoenig

There's nothing conventional about investment manager, author and media personality, Jonathan Hoenig.  Even the name of his hedge fund Capitalistpig, defies comparison.  

Years ago, I recruited Jonathan Hoenig to speak at financial industry events and then I began to notice his frequent TV appearances on Fox business programs.

Characteristically, in his new book with Stuart HayashiPrice Is Primary: how to profit with any asset in any market at any time Mr. Hoenig challenges several fundamental principles that some retail investors hold as immutable, even if professional traders do not.  

Consider dollar cost averaging; Hoenig argues instead that an initial purchase of a security should be your largest one, then on the basis of rigorous observation and disciplined use of rules, one should quickly pare losses or "let the winners run."  Rebalance your portfolio?  No, not a strategy he embraces.

Similar to some of his prior published work, Mr. Hoenig fuses elements of Objectivist philosophy and history to the art of investment management in some imaginative ways that may animate traders and non-traders alike.  The book is easy to read and worth a look.


  


Friday, September 03, 2021

A fiscal adult on the 'other' side of the aisle

One wouldn't expect to find a lot of bipartisanship concerning the federal $3.5 trillion spending bill -- and there isn't much to be found -- but courage and reason came shining through in this piece by Senator Joe Manchin (D) of West Virginia. 

(Source: Wall Street Journal). 

Why I Won’t Support Spending Another $3.5 Trillion

The nation faces an unprecedented array of challenges and will inevitably encounter additional crises in the future. Yet some in Congress have a strange belief there is an infinite supply of money to deal with any current or future crisis, and that spending trillions upon trillions will have no negative consequence for the future. I disagree.

An overheating economy has imposed a costly “inflation tax” on every middle- and working-class American. At $28.7 trillion and growing, the nation’s debt has reached record levels. Over the past 18 months, we’ve spent more than $5 trillion responding to the coronavirus pandemic. Now Democratic congressional leaders propose to pass the largest single spending bill in history with no regard to rising inflation, crippling debt or the inevitability of future crises. Ignoring the fiscal consequences of our policy choices will create a disastrous future for the next generation of Americans.

Those who believe such concerns are overstated should ask themselves: What do we do if the pandemic gets worse under the next viral mutation? What do we do if there is a financial crisis like the one that led to the Great Recession? What if we face a terrorist attack or major international conflict? How will America respond to such crises if we needlessly spend trillions of dollars today?

 

Instead of rushing to spend trillions on new government programs and additional stimulus funding, Congress should hit a strategic pause on the budget-reconciliation legislation. A pause is warranted because it will provide more clarity on the trajectory of the pandemic, and it will allow us to determine whether inflation is transitory or not. While some have suggested this reconciliation legislation must be passed now, I believe that making budgetary decisions under artificial political deadlines never leads to good policy or sound decisions. I have always said if I can’t explain it, I can’t vote for it, and I can’t explain why my Democratic colleagues are rushing to spend $3.5 trillion.

Another reason to pause: We must allow for a complete reporting and analysis of the implications a multitrillion-dollar bill will have for this generation and the next. Such a strategic pause will allow every member of Congress to use the transparent committee process to debate: What should we fund, and what can we simply not afford?

I, for one, won’t support a $3.5 trillion bill, or anywhere near that level of additional spending, without greater clarity about why Congress chooses to ignore the serious effects inflation and debt have on existing government programs. This is even more important now as the Social Security and Medicare Trustees have sounded the alarm that these life-saving programs will be insolvent and benefits could start to be reduced as soon as 2026 for Medicare and 2033, a year earlier than previously projected, for Social Security.

Establishing an artificial $3.5 trillion spending number and then reverse-engineering the partisan social priorities that should be funded isn’t how you make good policy. Undoubtedly some will argue that bold social-policy action must be taken now. While I share the belief that we should help those who need it the most, we must also be honest about the present economic reality.

Inflation continues to rise and is bleeding the value of Americans’ wages and income. More than 10.1 million jobs remain open. Our economy, as the Biden administration has correctly pointed out, has reached record levels of quarterly growth. This positive economic reality makes clear that the purpose of the proposed $3.5 trillion in new spending isn’t to solve urgent problems, but to re-envision America’s social policies. While my fellow Democrats will disagree, I believe that spending trillions more dollars not only ignores present economic reality, but makes it certain that America will be fiscally weakened when it faces a future recession or national emergency.

In 2017, my Republican friends used the privileged legislative procedure of budget reconciliation to rush through a partisan tax bill that added more than $1 trillion to the national debt and put investors ahead of workers. Then, Democrats rightfully criticized this budgetary tactic. Now, my Democratic friends want to use this same budgetary tactic to push through sweeping legislation to make “historic investments.” Respectfully, it was wrong when the Republicans did it, and it is wrong now. If we want to invest in America, a goal I support, then let’s take the time to get it right and determine what is absolutely necessary.

Many in Washington have convinced themselves we can add trillions of dollars more to our nearly $29 trillion national debt with no repercussions. Regardless of political party, elected leaders are sent to Washington to make tough decisions and not simply go along to get along.

For those who will dismiss my unwillingness to support a $3.5 trillion bill as political posturing, I hope they heed the powerful words of Adm. Mike Mullen, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who called debt the biggest threat to national security. His comments echoed the fear and concern I’ve heard from many economic experts I’ve personally met with.


At a time of intense political and policy divisions, it would serve us well to remember that members of Congress swear allegiance to this nation and fidelity to its Constitution, not to a political party. By placing a strategic pause on this budgetary proposal, by significantly reducing the size of any possible reconciliation bill to only what America can afford and needs to spend, we can and will build a better and stronger nation for all our families.

Monday, August 09, 2021

More news you can use....

from Nicole Nguyen.  Check out this article about consumer reviews on Amazon. 

I love the way that online commerce has democratized consumerism through usage of online reviews -- positive ones, negative ones and those that are simply informational.  

(Unfortunately, fake reviews and paid reviews continue to be a problem and Ms. Nguyen writes about that issue here).  

Computer vector created by pikisuperstar - www.freepik.com

Since the impact of negative reviews on sales is well understood; some merchants will essentially bribe the author of a negative review to delete their review, or harangue them with multiple e-mails.  

Fortunately, Amazon product reviews can be submitted anonymously to avoid unwanted merchant contact.  The article behind this post, provides the steps to take. 


Thursday, August 05, 2021

News you can use -- today's WSJ -- Tech section

 Columnist Ms. Nicole Nguyen shares an easy way to digitize your vaccination cards -- instead of a photo copy that might be harder to find.  Check out this article.  You'll find instructions for both iPhones and Android phones. 


Friday, April 30, 2021

Calling the market peak -- REVISITED

 Greetings!

Based upon feedback I received from one of my valued seven readers, what follows is a refinement of the views expressed in the previous post about market timing.  

Recall we're talking about predicting the direction of the equity market as a whole, or a large swath of it like the S&P 500 --- not individual stocks.

I didn't mean to imply that one cannot utilize deep experience and technical analysis to correctly predict a stock market peak (or trough) some of the time.  

There's an old saying that even a broken clock is right twice a day.  

However, who's consistently made these bold calls with enough accuracy to "beat" the market?  If you accept the proposition that the answer to that last question is nobody -- why would one ever wager more than they could afford to lose by trying?  

Vector created by pikisuperstar - www.freepik.com

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Think you can call the market peak? Think again.

I know most of my limitations.  I learned a while ago, for example, that I'm not a stock picker.  I also learned that trying to predict the stock market's trajectory is an often futile and dangerous exercise.  

One financial adviser whom I've known for decades addressed the oft-asked question -- When-will-the-stock-market-crash? -- in his recent client newsletter.  A Minneapolis-based adviser with Focus Financial he wrote...   

"The chances of individuals guessing when the stock market is going to crash is approximately the same as my guessing when the sun is going to explode.  Since I can't reasonably hazard a guess, I prefer to go about my day without worrying about the sun exploding."


Animals vector by rawpixel.com - www.freepik.com

Sunday, January 10, 2021

The people and story behind the Biltmore Estate

The Last Castle by Denise Kiernan 

Still the largest private residence ever constructed in the U.S. at 175,000 square feet; Biltmore Estate continues to hold public imagination.  I'd always thought mistakenly, that Biltmore was built at the behest of the family patriarch Cornelius Vanderbilt (aka "The Commodore").  

In fact it was his grandson, George W. Vanderbilt, who acquired some 125,000 acres in North Carolina's western countryside among the Blue Ridge mountains, upon which the mansion was constructed. 

One alert, as other reviewers noted, this book has less detail concerning the construction process, materials, architectural features and maintenance requirements of the structure, than one might've expected from the title.  

A fuller indication of Ms. Kiernan's narrative focus is revealed by her subtitle, "The Epic Story of Love, Loss, and American Royalty in the Nation's Largest Home".  

For some stunning modern day visuals of the Biltmore estate (now part of a mere 8,000 acres at Ashville, NC); have a look at the Biltmore Company website found ๐Ÿ Šhere.