A writer's words to live by

The following passage was shared with me recently.  It was written by a German writer, Rainer Maria Rilke.  Mr. Rilke died in 1926 at the age of 51. This piece is taken from his "Letters To A Young Poet".  I find these words timeless, profound and moving.   Please consider sharing them with someone.
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Be patient toward all that is unsolved in your heart

and try to love the questions themselves.

Do not now seek the answers, which cannot be 

given you because you would not be able to live them. 

And the point is to live everything.

Live the questions now. 

Perhaps you will then gradually, without noticing it, live along some distant day into the answers.

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AEI scholars' research: taxes vs. spending cuts

OMB Chart

Excerpts published at Examiner.com

An editorial grabbed my attention recently.  Titled, "The Right Way to Balance the Budget" the piece was published on page A13 of the Wall Street Journal on December 29th. 

Three scholars from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) collaborated on the aforementioned article.  They examined the likelihood of success coming from three choices we have to address our deficits and the national debt.

The choices of course are: tax increases, spending cuts, or a combination of both.

AEI website: Andrew Biggs

AEI website: Kevin Hassett

Two PhD economists, Andrew Biggs (London School of Economics) and Kevin Hassett (University of Pennsylvania) and economic research analyst Matt Jensen, argue their case by building on the prior work of two Harvard economists: Albert Alesina and Silvia Ardagna.

Messrs. Biggs, Hassett and Jensen conclude the primary way to fix our fiscal predicament is singular in nature -- cut government spending.  Period.  (Although they'd hasten to add that the type of spending cuts implemented does matter).  According to their thesis, the notion of raising taxes, or even using a combination of tax raises and spending cuts -- will not work. 

The case for cutting federal (and state) government spending has been simple -- increasing revenues for the government without statutory spending restraints, will only result in continued spending because historically, government reverts to its spendthrift ways when it is not legally shackled to do otherwise.

Remember, we had a balanced federal budget as recently as 1998 and ran surpluses for a few years but Congress and the Executive branch of government failed to continue a fiscally responsible path, so here we are in 2010 facing a 14 Trillion dollar monster.

No wonder many Americans believe that neither Congress, or any President can be trusted to remain fiscally responsible.  So, what about the experience of other industrialized, debt-laden countries?  Here's the verdict from the AEI authors who analyzed the history of debt consolidations attempted in 21 nations over the course of 37 years...

The authors assert, "...the typical unsuccessful consolidation relied on 53% tax increases and 47% spending cuts."  

Some observers predict that this is precisely the sort of compromise (i.e. arriving at a closely weighted mix of tax increases and spending cuts) which will be hatched by pols in Washington trying to tackle our own debt problem (or appear as though they are).

Biggs-Hassett-Jensen conclude that nations achieve fiscal balance only after applying austerity measures which include a minimum 85% reduction in spending cuts.  In other words, no more than 15% of the total solution, comes from tax increases.  They also hold that nations achieve these cuts primarily by responsible reduction of social transfer payments.

Surprised?  We have to significantly reduce spending now to avoid much more devastating pain later, because nations don't tax their way to solvency.

Public Notice - the bankrupting of America

Public Notice is "an independent non-profit dedicated to providing facts and insight on the economy and how government policy affects Americans’ financial well-being."  

Here's a slide from them (with holiday flair) called "The 12 Days of Government Spending"

A post-election reply to Mortimer and Stanley

Wikipedia

Here are excerpts from a reply to two friends - disguised with fake names - Mortimer and Stanley.   

These guys fall at opposite ends of the political spectrum, but their exchanges are always respectful.  The three of us have been "sparring" since our teens. 

Some text changed, but it is close to the original version when I responded to their post-election e-mail dual of 11/3/2010...

"Dear Mortimer and Stanley,

I love your passionate sentiments about today's political landscape and all that ails us.  I agree with both of you - to an extent. Ah, the advantage of going last...

I'll start with Stanley and his Mortimer rebuke - "Greed and avarice are as old as the Bible, Morty. And the Democrats are experts on that."  

Stanley, I assume you mean Dems are experts on greed, not the Bible.  Some Republicans also know greed, as do some Libertarians.  What's missing in your criticism, is the role of of the players who make policies, appropriations, budgets and tax incentives that perpetuate our fiscal hell. 

Take, the housing bubble, which was enabled by government policies (sorry Morty, mainly Dems and the Fed in my view) when millions of Americans "bought" houses that they could not afford.  That experience is the perfect example of why we are broke as a nation and as a people. We ate too much, drank too much, bought too much, saved too little and then the bill came due. 

Yes, we have a consumer-based economy Morty and it's a giant Petri dish of self indulgence.  An economy so dependent upon domestic consumption strikes me as doomed as ancient Rome.

Our sense of liberty gave way to gluttony and we confuse the two nouns. 

These election outcomes?  Yes the people have spoken Stanley, but will a new majority in power practice sound fiscal principles by telling voters what many of them don't want to hear?  Will tax cuts be matched by corresponding spending cuts?  We'll see what the new Congress tries in January, but I don't believe we can tax our way out of the hole, or depend upon government to be a good steward of the peoples'' wealth.  Nor can the Fed save us by printing cash.  What's the pain remedy?  First we must take some pain.  

Live within our means, keep the dollar strong and responsibly scale back entitlement programs.  Social Security, Medicare, a bevy of state and other federal programs, public sector defined benefit retirement plans, as well as Cadillac health plans are all part of the same problem.  Some austerity measures can kick in now, not in 2025.

As for Mortimer's remorse regarding Mr. Feingold's election  fate, I was pleased but not surprised.  My view on how Russ Feingold devolved as a public servant would take time, but here's a taste...

You called him a Maverick, Morty.  Sometimes yes, but not always when it mattered.  His lonevote against the Patriot Act was pointless grandstanding.  He acted as though he had a monopoly on wisdom and constitutional purity that somehow eluded 98% of the United States Senate (one senator didn't vote on the measure).

Libertarians later rebelled against this Maverick after he voted for his party's stimulus package and Obamacare.  All this and years of inactive legislative performance sunk his boat, Morty.  He fell in love with being a Senator and made an ill-timed dart to the entitlement-loving, Left.  It was too late for him to retreat to the Center. 

I'm done for now, but know this men -- I can still drive to the hoop better than either one of you ever could, although I concede you were both better students. 

Your devoted friend,

John

A fiscal adult -- David M. Walker

Consider the national debt which as a percentage of gross domestic product is at its highest levels since World War Two.  Click here for a real-time depiction of our debt and consider the faith that the rest of the industrialized world has in the United States as a beacon of financial stability. 

What happens when that changes?  Why are some observers more worried about climate change than global economic calamity that is looming in our midst? 

We need more leaders like Mr. David M. Walker.  This post is dedicated to his mission.  Some might think I'm joking when I say that what we need in Congress and the White House right now are accountants.  I'm actually serious.  Mr. Walker, by the way, was an Arthur Andersen partner several years ago. 

We need people who can balance a budget and say "no" and be proud to say no because it is right and just.  The only anecdote for a nation addicted to debt are politicians with the fortitude to say, "You'll be getting less now and you'll wait longer to receive it.  Sorry."

Mr. Walker is willing to accept more tax increases to offset spending cuts than many of us would like to see -- as opposed to demanding proportionally-larger spending cuts.  Yet, I still admire his zeal to reclaim a fiscally-sane America.

David Walker: Wikipedia

I invite you to learn more about him by clicking on this Wiki...

Mr. Barrett's omission

Yesterday morning I listened to a radio program that sounded like a Town Hall celebration of Tom Barrett's Gubernatorial bid.  It was broadcast live from the University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee. 

I couldn't listen to the whole program but the thirty minute portion I heard included Mr. Barrett's diatribe against Wisconsin's $2.7B structural deficit and his plan to end it which includes tax increases on "the wealthy."  Here's what bothers me...

Not once in the first thirty minutes of Mr. Barrett's monologue did I hear a single reference to a spending cut.  If I missed such a bombshell in the remaining minutes of the program, please let me know.

Kapenga for Wisconsin's 33rd Assembly District

I'm supporting Mr. Chris Kapenga for this seat because we need a hard-nosed fiscal conservative now more than ever.  If only we could have more accountants in the state legislature.  

Here's something I found on Mr. Kapenga's website by William J. H. Boetcker

•You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.

•You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.

•You cannot help little men by tearing down the big men.

•You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.

•You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.

•You cannot establish sound security on borrowed money.

•You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.

•You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn.

•You cannot build character and courage by destroying men's initiative and independence.

•And you cannot help men by doing for them what they can and should do for themselves.