Economics 101 for the rest of us

Warren Buffet and Carl Icahn are famous investors but fewer people may know Ray Dalio.  Mr. Dalio founded an investment firm 40 years ago called Bridgewater Associates.  With $160 billion under management, Bridgewater runs one of the largest hedge funds in the world.

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, Bridgewater website

I recently discovered (among 3 million other people) a thirty minute YouTube video that Mr. Dalio produced to explain fundamentals of what he calls the economic machine. 

This video, which he narrates has been translated into several languages and viewed over 3,200,000 times.  The content begins slowly with basic concepts but progresses to explain the primary levers that policy-makers use to manage and stimulate the economy.  You can find it here.  

There are numerous lessons cleverly and clearly explained here.  Example: I hadn't appreciated why economists seem obsessed with Wage Growth until I watched this simple animated video.  The importance of wage growth has less to do with the oft-used and politically-charged phrase, "income inequality" and more to do with our collective ability to consume and deflate credit bubbles.

Also explained, is the concept of Credit, which Mr. Dalio asserts, "...is the most important part of the economy and probably the least understood". Other explanatory notes...

• "A beautiful deleveraging" of our massive debt and deficits is the catalyst for a soft landing we all pray for in order to avert "social disorder" and societal collapse.  
• Spending cuts are generally what people think of when they hear about "austerity" measures exercised by government, individuals and businesses to lower spending on goods and services.  
• Wealth redistribution occurs primarily through higher taxation on upper income Americans.  
• Money-printing refers to Federal Reserve purchases of government bonds and other financial assets ($2T since the Great Recession alone).

So what's the correct mix and emphasis of lever-pulling required for a soft landing?  Perhaps Mr. Dalio will address that question -- and what exactly is meant by a soft landing -- on this same platform at http://www.economicprinciples.org.

Conflicting voices about the debt crisis

The official position of this blog remains that the United States does not have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem. 

I spoke with Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner at a local Town Hall Meeting last April about an idea advanced by Tim Pawlenty to avoid default without raising the debt limit.  The U.S. Treasury has the power to sequence (i.e. prioritize) payments when bills come due.  So debt holders can indeed be paid first to avert default and buy time while a budget patch is passed.  The idea has been roundly ignored or dismissed as impractical.  Of course, the U.S. government also has over a trillion dollars worth of other assets much of which could be liquidated to pay bills, but that's another post.

Guy tilling soil in front of Financial Temple - Wikipedia

The debt markets have not been as restive as the equity markets.  Bond markets know that the administration would not pull the financial temple down on our heads and allow a default, because it is not in the politicians' interest to do so.  The Obama administration would have little choice but to play the payment sequencing card to avert financial Armageddon. 

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner does not believe the Treasury possesses this ability.  A blog called FairlyConservative.com points out the bluff by citing some July 25th reporting done by Charlie Gasparino.  

What happened two days ago?  Bloomberg News and others reported that "...the Treasury Department will disclose its list of spending priorities in the event the debt limit isn't raised before August 2nd."  Apparently, the rating agencies warn against doing this (the same folks that did such a fine job assigning risk before the housing market cratered).  In the macro-scheme of things, it really wouldn't matter much according to David Wessel, and others. 

I don't want a credit downgrade to occur like Neil Cavuto and I understand the impact on our borrowing costs, but it might be more of a political risk than an economic risk which is a view expressed rather well in this blurb from Politico.

I'm listening to Bloomberg Radio and an interview with Mohamed El-Erian.  Dr. El-Erian understands the bond markets which at this juncture, are a more reliable indicator of danger than political sideshows that reap so much media attention.